SPORTS BETTING SYSTEMS - RECENT ARTICLES
SPORTS BETTING SYSTEMS ARE EXPLAINED IN A SELECTION OF ARTICLES THAT HELP EXPLAIN SPORTS BETTING SYSTEMS AND SPORTS BOOKS:-
The Professional Player – Helping Turn Squares into Sharps
As a general rule there are two groups of gamblers – those who hope to win and those who expect to win. The vast majority of gamblers belong to the first group, and always will, because their actions contradict their intentions. At the Professional Player, we aim to explain why.
There is no simple secret to attaining long-term betting profitability, all professional players serve a long apprenticeship, but if you aspire to join this elite group there are some basic concepts that you need to come to grips with in order to make the transition from ‘square’ to ‘sharp’.
Understanding How Bookmakers Work
The first choice that a novice gambler must make is where to place their bet. More often than not, this is where they make their first and biggest mistake, simply because they don’t understand how bookmakers work.
In simple terms, bookmakers make a profit by pricing their betting markets so that the odds offered do not fairly represent the actual statistical probability of the event concerned. The simplest analogy is betting on a coin toss, which statistically represents a 50/50 chance (even money or 1/1) on either outcome – heads or tails. When betting with a friend, you’d bet $10 to win $10.
Most bookmakers however, would offer heads or tails at odds below 1/1, so you would for example have to bet $11 to win $10 (10/11) on what is essentially an equal chance. If one player bets $11 to win $10 on heads and another punter bets $11 to win $10 on tails, the bookie takes in $22 in bets but regardless of whether the outcome is heads or tails, he will pay out $21 ($10 in winnings and return the player’s stake amount of $10). The difference between the odds they offer, and the true price represents the bookies’ margin, in this case a $1 profit or 4.5% on turnover.
At PinnacleSports.com we typically price two-way markets - such as the five major European soccer leagues - to 102%, which offers up to 60% better odds than traditional bookmakers. Using the example of the coin toss, you would have to win close to c. 53% of bets to break even with traditional bookmakers, but at a low margin online sports book like PinnacleSports.com you would only need to win c. 51% of your picks to break even.
Price, Price, Price
While all bookmakers use this simple business model, there can be a huge variance in the profit margin priced into a market. The sportsbooks offering the least value rely on the ignorance of players to these simple market making principles in order to maximize profits. As a crude rule of thumb, if a sportsbook uses scantily clad women to promote themselves, the likelihood is that their models are much hotter than their prices. At PinnacleSports.comour motto is simple – to give yourself the best chance of making a profit, ‘always get the best price’. PinnacleSports.com, is the Sportsbook of choice for serious players, because a professional player understands the importance of price, and PinnacleSports.com’s lines are rarely beaten. At Pinnacle Sports we define a ‘sharp’ or professional player as a client we expect will win in the long-term.
The key point is that it doesn’t matter whether the action is at Wembley, the Nou Camp or Poland’s third division; or if you are a professional punter or betting novice, to increase the chances of long-term profitability, or maximise the rewards of short-term punting, you should always research your chosen sport to the best of your abilities then try to get down at the best price possible using a low margin online sports book like PinnacleSports.com, a betting exchange or even your local High Street bookie.
The Psychology of Key Numbers in the NFL
Today I want to talk to you about something you probably never gave much thought to when wagering on football: Pyschology. That’s right, psychology. What I mean when I say this is you have to take into account the psychology of certain point spreads and why bookmakers will set a game at a certain number. AND you have to think about the hesitation sportsbooks have when thinking about moving off a particular number.
When you watch all the experts on television they like to talk about so many different numbers: the temperature in the air, quarterback ratings, total points allowed, previous winning or losing streaks, etc. But they almost never talk about the most important number there is … THE SPREAD ITSELF!
It seems so obvious and yet it gets lost in all the noise and bluster you see and hear on TV: first and foremost the pointspread is THE number to think about before you bet. That’s because of the scoring system in the NFL and how often games will land on certain key numbers. Another term for this is ‘fall-on’ numbers, so called because they’re numbers that final scores frequently ‘fall-on.’
In our research we discovered that 3 is the most common ‘fall-on’ number in the NFL. Over the last 15 years, almost 8% of all games have landed on this number. The number 7 is the second most common final margin of victory. This is no surprise, since most scoring happens in instances of 3 and 7.
But what you may not know, and one of the reasons the SB Professor system is especially crucial to have at your disposal, is there are other key numbers in the NFL. You need to look especially hard at games that are listed with spreads at the individual line values of 3 and 7. But you also have to look at spreads posted at the sum total of one of each (10), the sum total of two of the same (6 and 14), and the numerical differences between the two (4). These six pointspreads are ALL key numbers. In fact, they account for roughly 45% of margins of all games.
Tying these numbers back to the psychology of the bookmaker is an important part of the wagering process. Our research shows that installing a home team as a 3 point favorite will result in dramatically different results than when the home team is listed as a 4 point favorite. So again, it might only be one point, but knowing what to do in the instances of that one point difference will determine whether you are a winner or a loser this football season.
This is why the SB Professor’s NFL System is essential to today’s serious gambler. To check out the system please visit me at:
http://www.sportsbettingprofessor.com
Good luck with all your wagers this season and don’t forget about those key numbers!
Late Season NFL Home Underdogs
Recently I spoke about some long-held myths in the NFL and how unreliable they really are. If you want to have true success in betting on football, and sports in general, you have to stay away from these ‘hunch’ plays or theories.
The true road to success lies in one thing: the numbers. That’s why this system is based entirely on numbers. No emotions, no half-cocked ideas, no gimmicks. To view in-full details about the system, check out:
http://www.sportsbettingprofessor.com
Looking at the NFL though, studies show there is another statistical bias that can be taken advantage of and it occurs later on in the NFL season. This advantage has to do with, drum roll please … the home ‘dog.
You’ve seen Rich Allen talk about home underdogs on video and he has written about it extensively. Overall it’s a terrible strategy to follow, with winning percentages falling well below the needed 52.7% needed to make even the smallest profit with 10 cent juice.
However, research has shown that later on in the NFL season the Home Underdog play starts to make more sense. Up until Week 14 a bet on the Home ‘Dog will only cover 51.4% of the time, that’s a losing proposition. But after Week 14 that percentage jumps to a remarkable (and profitable!) 60%. This is a huge advantage to have going into the late season schedule. If you’re lucky enough to find a home underdog in the playoffs, these come in at a success rate of 77.8%.
The bottom line is it doesn’t pay off to buy into the hype about certain strategies or hot tips. But when you do find one that works, and has worked over a long period of time, you’d be foolish not to take advantage of it.
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